A Brief View Of Wall Street

Wall Street

Dr. Tumbili scribbled on his notepad, in a moment of angry hunger, this entertaining article called “A Brief View of Wall Street”.

I wanted to publish it, just to show you that monkeys have strong opinions as well… even though, sometimes, they seem a bit bizarre! I’ll post some of my own inputs, once in a while, as a moderator. I just don’t want to upset anybody in the audience. Enjoy the ride…

 

In The Beginning…

In the beginning of financial times there were only Fundamentals. They were boring, predictable, the perfect thing for Swiss Banks’ domination.

Then somebody noticed the human morbid attachment to habits. After studying the intimate correlation between such habits and the Vegas wild life, he decided it was time to do something about it.

He crunched a bunch of numbers, and came out with many theories about everything related to “market” behavior.

If human behavior was habitual… market behavior ought to be habitual as well.

Bingo!

He then called his cousin, a genius in Marketing, and both came up with an idea that changed financial History for good.

Since credibility is everything when you decide to shift for the unusual, this “somebody” and his cousin invented the authoritative expression “Technical Analysis”.

The idea was really something… Behind it was the strong belief that people would instinctively respect anybody who’d say, with a firm tone of voice: “Technical Analysis!”. They get instantly intimidated, and will never, ever question authority!

That’s how, according to Dr. Tumbili, Technical Analysis was born in the world of Wall Street!

 

And The Rest Is History

Now that we know how “Technical Analysis” was born, and how much people are scared of anything “technical” or “analytical” (!), what happened next?

Here it is, according to Dr. Tumbili:

  1. Some people empirically studied those habits, attaching fancy names to each one of them;
  2. Then they bought a couple of ties, Armani suits and started selling knowledge as “consultants”, spitting out expressions that made them look important, such as “the reversal occurred at level one of extended Fibonacci, hitting the upper Bollinger and stopping at the 200 SMA, as expected” (you noticed the “as expected”, of course, implying obvious knowledge and total control of the situation. These people also love to say “I’m on top of it!”);
  3. Man, oh man! Would you have the courage to ask for explanations without feeling ridiculously stupid? Of course not! Not even the Government dared to do that;
  4. Many people used their love for “habits” to start repeating that kind of talk to others. Girlfriends, as you can imagine, were all in ecstatic blind admiration, enough for some of those heroes to have their Armani suits violently ripped apart;
  5. They then started developing a specific “Wall Street body language”, cocky and self-assured (by the way, some of those guys were not even shaving yet), with cigars, loud talking at happy-hours, thousands-of-dollars-bottles-of-wine (about which they became instant experts as well), and drugs – plenty of drugs;
  6. The high point for this fancy yuppie horde was “Wall Street”… the movie!
  7. Since some things in life have only two directions – up or down – those “consultants” on the casual and lucky positive side of things became “experts”;
  8. Some “experts” started talking like financial Gods on TV and cable channels. They’re still there, even after the 2008 financial meltdown, talking and talking and talking;
  9. Speaking of which, wouldn’t it be highly weird if all those TV guys and girls would just suddenly shut up? They HAVE to talk, even if they’ve absolutely nothing to say – which, by the way, is the great majority of times!
  10. More people became “experts”, precisely half of all the “consultants”… since statistically each event had exactly 50% chances of going either way: up or down;
  11. A whole industry of “experts” was created, an economic phenomenon now irreversible, to the point of possibly creating high labor instability otherwise;
  12. More statistics and indicators needed to be invented to justify the sheer existence of so many “experts” – and their salaries;
  13. They started to become very, very incomprehensible for two reasons: first, to make them indispensable, and second, to mystify even more the whole enchilada;
  14. They saw their salaries grow in the same proportion of the nonsense they’re spreading through fancier and fancier expressions and acronyms;
  15. Many of those acronyms nobody had a distant clue of the meanings. Nobody had the guts to ask, though, for fear of being mocked;
  16. At a certain point, just for sheer boredom, some “experts” created “derivatives”. Of course they didn’t understand their own creations, that’s why Congress is still searching for clues;
  17. The thing became so complicated that the only solution was making those complications even more complicated, through “regulations”;
  18. None of the “experts” paid any price for inventing those “derivatives” – or for creating the whole mess, for that matter. They’re now blaming… Europe! 😉
  19. What happened to “Technical Analysis”? The elite of “experts” now call it “Self-Fulfilling-Prophecies”, or SFP in their jargon!

All of you know what the word “bull” means when positioned in front to the word “market”, right? What I’m not so sure about, though, is the reason for such expression. I strongly suspect it’s a close cousin of BS!

It’s very easy to understand why Warren Buffet made his Billions far, far away from Wall Street!… hehehe!

 

Back To Basics

“Wow… Does Dr. Tumbili really thing all he said above?” – you ask.

Well… yes, I really think he does! I might have been in doubt before Sep 15, 2008, but now… 😉

“Is he right about all this?”

Oh… that I don’t know, of course. They’re just his opinions. One thing is for certain, though: if he wins the challenge against me, the engineer, he’ll be proven right. If not, well, then he’ll probably rethink life and become part of the horde. Who knows.

Either way, he’ll come out of it a better trader, I’m sure.

Dr. Tumbili represents the “back to basics” mentality. He loves the Model T Trading System, the simplest you could ever imagine – a candidate for high mockery from the “experts”. His trading behavior is probably a scandal among them.

And this was “A Brief View of Wall Street”… according to Dr. Tumbili – the Monkey Trader!

Thanks for watching…

 

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